Economic data is affected by factors such as COVID-19, and the downward pressure on the economy has accelerated
Sep 07, 2021
On August 29, the National Bureau of Statistics of China released the latest economic data. The results revealed by the data are: the growth rate of social zero, investment, and industrial added value has fallen across the board, and the only thing that has risen is the unemployment rate. Friends who often pay attention to data know that under normal circumstances, a series of macroeconomic data indicators are published with good or bad, and there is rarely a one-sided situation. After all, the subdivision areas of data detection are different. In such a complex economic world, it is really difficult to achieve "uniformity". However, the current data uniformity difference once again reflects the great downward pressure on the economy in the second half of the year. It's still the same, we look at it from the major sub-items. Let's first look at fixed asset investment. The cumulative fixed asset investment increased by 10.3% year-on-year, the expected value was 11.4%, the previous value was 12.6%, and the two-year average was 4.3%. The three most important sub-items in fixed asset investment: manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure. From January to July, manufacturing investment increased by 17.3% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 3.1%. Although manufacturing investment continued to recover, the rate of recovery began to weaken rapidly. The average two-year average was 2.8% in July and June. It was 6%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points. The repeated epidemics certainly have an impact on the decline in investment of manufacturing companies. After all, the frequent recurrence of the epidemic has greatly increased the uncertainty of the production and operation of enterprises. In an uncertain economic environment, companies can only take one step at a time. In addition to the epidemic, uncertainty on the demand side and pressure on the cost side have also inhibited manufacturing companies from investing in expansion. At present, raw material prices and freight prices are still the two big mountains weighing on manufacturing investment. In July, PPI increased by 9% year-on-year, and the year-on-year trend rose again. While the cost side is under pressure, the demand side of enterprises is not optimistic. Previously, there were orders, even if the cost rose a little, the company could still afford it. But now the uncertainty on the demand side is increasing. The domestic economy is likely to continue to decline in the second half of the year, while overseas demand is also weakening. New export orders and on-hand orders have all declined in July. Let's look at real estate again. In July, real estate investment grew by 6.4% year-on-year in two years, and the previous value was 7.2%. Real estate investment also continued to decline. This is mainly due to the influence of the "three red lines" of real estate financing and the "two red lines" of centralized management of housing loans, and the upgrading of real estate regulation...
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